Draft Analysts Have No Idea What They’re Doing

As if we needed proof that the three months of journalistic masturbation that leads up to the NFL Draft is pointless, the first two rounds proved yet again that all the mock drafts and preparatory analysis does little — if anything — to make the draft day picture clearer for fans. In fact, if you go by the percentage of picks that ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay — and the NFL Network’s Mike Mayock — get right, you’d be convinced that you, too could be a highly paid NFL Draft analyst.

mark sanchez combine jets draft

(Analysts on Sanchez: 33 percent right.)

How bad were they? Well, as you can see after the jump, there were only three picks in which all three analysts agreed on the selection … and in which they were correct. Mayock was significantly off throughout — largely because he picked the wrong spot for Sanchez, despite being closer to Sanchez’s actual selection than McShay — and McShay had moments where he completely failed to read between the line (despite the fact that both ESPN analysts cleverly adjusted their drafts to include a Chiefs pick of Tyson Jackson).

For the record, here are the official Round 1 picks as they actually happened, while these are the picks that Kiper, McShay and Mayock drew up days before the draft began. What you’re seeing listed below are some of the greatest misses.

  • No. 3 — Kiper: Tyson Jackson (correct); McShay: Tyson Jackson (correct); Mayock: x-Aaron Curry
  • No. 4 — Kiper: Aaron Curry (correct); McShay: Aaron Curry (correct); Mayock: x-Michael Crabtree
  • No. 5 — Kiper: Mark Sanchez (correct, and inspiringly so); McShay: x-B.J. Raji; Mayock: x-B.J. Raji
  • No. 7 — Kiper: x-Eugene Monroe; McShay: x-Michael Crabtree; Mayock: Darius Heyward-Bey (correct, and like the Sanchez pick, inspiringly so)
  • No. 8 — Kiper: x-Michael Crabtree; McShay: Eugene Monroe (correct); Mayock: x-Mark Sanchez
  • No. 9 — Kiper: B.J. Raji (correct); McShay: x-Brian Orakpo; Mayock: x-Eugene Monroe
  • No. 10 — Kiper: x-Jeremy Maclin; McShay: x-Michael Oher; Mayock: x-Michael Oher (actual pick was Michael Crabtree)

As you can see, in the first 10 picks alone,  only three were correctly called by all three analysts. One, No. 10, was missed by all three. Only Kiper batted above .500, and these are the top 10 picks! You know, the ones that are supposed to be the most obvious. As you can imagine, the percentages go way down from there.

So, what should we make of this? Well, we should start our own draft analysis company, that’s what we should make of it. After all, who needs Scouts Inc. when we can do the heavy lifting ourselves … or at least throw darts at a board and get just as close as the NFL analysts.

5 comments

  1. Gravatartracy
    12:08 pm on April 26th, 2009

    Was Kiper's Sanchez pick for the Jets or the Browns?

  2. Gravatarjames
    12:10 pm on April 26th, 2009

    i love how they can make a case for any guy to be the next best player in the league.

  3. Gravatarjoecool
    3:16 pm on April 26th, 2009

    Do these guys talk to any teams or do they just sit in the studio and guess?

  4. GravatarAlvin
    11:07 pm on April 26th, 2009

    It's all about filling time. Professional time killers. Nothing more.

    I have no idea what the appeal of watching the draft is. Get a life.

  5. GravatarLarry Brown
    3:19 am on April 27th, 2009

    Seems to me that your desire to rip ESPN and some of the experts in order to earn "cool points" in the blogosphere is clouding your judgment.  All three did excellent jobs by my account, you know, one that actual uses a little common sense such as did they get the right position, did trades screw them up but essentially they were right?  What kind of lazy analysis is this?  The only person that has no idea what they're doing is you. 

    If you had a clue, you wouldn't write such an incomplete post.  What you said in essence is that Kobe Bryant can't shoot because he only makes 45% of his shots or that Pujols can't bat because he only hits .350.  For McShay to get 8 right and 3 essentially right (both Denver players just in the wrong order and Freeman to TB) he went 11/32 which is 34%.  Find me another expert that did better.

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